IFSAR Challenges US Alcohol Cancer Death Doubling Data

Ignoring Population Growth and Drinking Patterns: Medical Study Inferences Spark Scientific Debate

The medical journal The Lancet Regional Health – Americas recently published a new study by Jani et al., claiming that alcohol-attributable cancer deaths in the United States doubled between 1990 and 2023, surging from 11,361 in 1990 to 23,126 in 2023. The study noted that mortality rates among individuals aged 55 and older were higher than those in the 20 to 54 age group, and mortality was higher in men than in women, with liver cancer seeing the most severe increase. Among younger adults aged 20 to 54, colorectal cancer in men and breast cancer in women showed the most significant increases.

However, the International Forum for Scientific Research on Alcohol (IFSAR) subsequently conducted an in-depth analysis of the study, calling its conclusions surprising and misleading while citing several severe methodological flaws. Although the study used the Global Burden of Disease database to evaluate age-standardized mortality rates, it overlooked the fact that the US population grew by approximately 35% between 1990 and 2023. IFSAR stated that once population growth is accounted for, the age-standardized mortality rate merely rose from 3.8 to 4.1 per 100,000 individuals—an extremely minor increase that sharply contradicts the report's headline claim of doubled mortality.

Failure to Distinguish Drinking Patterns and the J-Shaped Curve

IFSAR also criticized the study's alcohol exposure data as incomplete. Current cancer mortality rates often reflect cumulative alcohol exposure from years or even decades prior, yet the study's assessment criteria completely failed to incorporate beverage types, dietary habits, or drinking patterns. By grouping all alcohol consumption into a single metric, it failed to differentiate light-to-moderate drinking from chronic heavy abuse or binge drinking—even though the vast majority of alcohol-related cancer risks only rise substantially at extremely high consumption levels.

Forum member Ellison further explained that the study assumed a linear relationship between alcohol and health, whereas decades of medical research have consistently confirmed a J-shaped relationship: light-to-moderate drinking may confer health benefits, while excessive drinking increases adverse health outcomes. Calculating only total drinks consumed without categorizing patterns renders the resulting associations virtually useless for establishing sound public guidance.

Confounding Variables and Transparency on Spirits' Real Impact

Additionally, IFSAR highlighted the confounding impact of variables such as smoking. Because alcohol consumption and smoking are highly correlated, and smoking itself is a well-established high-risk factor for various cancers, failure to isolate smoking severely distorts causal inferences regarding alcohol and cancer risk. Against the backdrop of steadily declining overall cancer mortality in the US over recent decades, the paper's conclusions lack analytical transparency and fail to objectively reflect the genuine impact of spirits like whisky and other alcoholic beverages across diverse drinking habits.

📅 Publish Date: 2026-10-08

🔗 Source: The Drinks Business